so ive been messing around on 17 and 20 meters the past couple weeks and the band conditions have just been all over the place. one evening ill work a station in japan no problem and then the next day i cant even hear europe and i'm in the midwest. checked the solar flux index and its been bouncing around between like 150 and 190 which i thought would be good but honestly i cant predict whats gonna happen anymore

been doing this about 4 years now and i feel like the bands have a personality of their own lately. had a wild opening to south america last tuesday around 1800z that lasted maybe 45 minutes and then just gone. like someone pulled a plug. my buddy in iowa didnt hear any of it. is this kind of thing normal during rising solar cycle or am i just lucky/unlucky with timing

also been checking DXmaps and pskreporter obsessively which probably isnt helping my sanity. anyone else riding the solar rollercoaster right now

yeah the variability right now is pretty typical for where we are in the cycle honestly. solar flux in the 150-190 range is generally good news for the higher bands but the real wild card is the K index and any geomagnetic disturbances that come through. you can have a great flux number and then a CME hits and the bands go dead for a day or two. thats probably what youre seeing with the inconsistency

the short openings like that south america thing you described, thats pretty common with sporadic conditions or even just the terminator passing through. some of the best DX ive ever worked was in a window under 30 minutes. you really do just have to be there at the right time. i keep a radio on in the background a lot more than i used to just because of stuff like that. 17 meters in particular has been giving me some really weird long path stuff in the mornings, worth checking if you havent tried that yet

omg yes same here, im still pretty new to HF like only been on about 8 months but even i can tell somethings different lately. i worked my first ever ZL station last week which was huge for me and then literally the day after i could barely reach the east coast from here in colorado. my elmer told me to just keep a log of the solar flux and K index alongside my contacts and after a few months it starts to make more sense. havent been doing it long enough to see patterns yet but it sounds like even experienced people find it unpredictable so i feel a little better about being confused lol