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wire dipole vs vertical for 40m — am i overthinking this

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so ive been going back and forth on this for like two months now and i figured id just post and see what people think. my situation is a fairly small suburban lot, maybe 60x90 feet, two story house, a couple trees in the back that are decent height maybe 35-40 feet. i currently have a crappy end fed random wire that i threw up last year just to get on the air and it works but the noise floor on 40 is killing me, SWR is a mess above 7.1 and i have to fiddle with the tuner constantly.

ive been looking at putting up something more permanent and the two options im seriously considering are a standard half wave dipole center fed with some 450 ohm ladder line into a tuner, or one of those trap verticals, maybe a Hustler or similar, with a few radials. i have a spot in the yard where i could get a vertical up maybe 15 feet from the house which isnt ideal i know.

the part that has me stuck is that most of what i read says dipoles at low heights are basically NVIS and good for regional stuff, and the vertical would theoretically give me better low angle radiation for DX. but then somebody else told me a vertical 15 feet from the house is gonna have all kinds of issues with the house affecting the pattern. dont know who to believe at this point. mostly want to work 40 and 80m with occasional 20m, not a serious DXer but id like to at least make contacts outside north america sometimes.

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honestly the dipole is probably your better bet given that lot size and the tree situation. 35-40 feet isnt gonna give you a screaming low angle pattern on 40m but its not terrible either, and the big advantage is you can run it as an inverted V and get decent coverage in multiple directions without worrying about ground losses. verticals are only as good as their ground system and if youre putting 4-6 radials down in a suburban yard youre leaving a lot of efficiency on the table compared to what the textbooks describe.

the 15 feet from house thing is a real concern btw. ive had a vertical close to my garage and the pattern was definitely wonky, worked okay but i could tell something was off when signals that should have been louder werent. moved it further out when i reconfigured the yard and it made a noticeable difference. if your trees can support a decent inverted V apex around 35 feet id just go that route and not second guess it. you can always add a second dipole for 80 later and run them off the same feedline with a good tuner.

im in kind of a similar situation and went with the dipole route last spring, no regrets. i did an inverted V on 40m with the apex at about 32 feet and ive worked europe a handful of times on it which surprised me honestly. the NVIS thing gets overstated in my opinion, yeah its better for closer in but its not like you cant get out at all. the vertical might edge it out on pure DX but the setup headache and the ground radial situation wasnt worth it for my yard. also the ladder line into a tuner setup is super flexible, same antenna works fine on 80 and 20 for me with just the tuner doing its thing.

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