so ive been trying to work some DX on 17m and 15m for the past few weeks and the conditions have just been all over the place. like one afternoon ill have Europe coming in like theyre next door and then the next day at the same time its completely dead. checked the solar flux index and its been bouncing around between like 140 and 190 which i guess is decent but the K index has been spiking a lot and i think thats whats killing me.

had a really promising opening to Japan last tuesday morning around 0100z, worked about 4 or 5 JA stations before it just kind of collapsed on me. tried again the next night and nothing. my buddy who runs way more power than me said he was hearing stuff but couldnt break through either so i dont think its just my antenna situation.

anyone been tracking this more closely than me? is there a good resource you guys use beyond just checking DXwatch and pskreporter? feels like im missing openings because i dont know when to actually be at the radio

yeah the geomagnetic stuff has been pretty rough lately, couple of CMEs came through and really messed things up for a few days each time. the solar flux being high is great but it doesnt mean much when the Kp is sitting at 4 or 5 — that absorption just kills the higher bands especially for paths that go over or near the poles like anything to Japan from North America.

for resources i really like the weekly propagation bulletin from ARRL, W1AW puts it out and its a good summary without being too technical. also OH8X has a page that shows real time band conditions and greyline which i check constantly. greyline is honestly the key thing for those JA openings you're talking about — that window can be pretty narrow and if you miss it by even 20-30 minutes sometimes the band just moves on without you. worth setting an alarm and just being there a little early rather than trying to catch it after the fact

honestly same boat here, im fairly new to HF and this whole propagation thing is still kind of a mystery to me. i downloaded the HamSphere app or whatever and it shows band conditions but im not always sure im reading it right. didnt realize the K index mattered that much, i thought higher solar flux was just always better. this thread is helpful lol