so ive been on 17m and 20m a lot the past couple weeks and something weird is going on. some days i can work europe no problem from the midwest, other days its like the band is completely dead and i cant even hear any signals at all. checked the solar flux and its been bouncing around quite a bit, was up around 180 something last week then dropped back down. im not super experienced with reading all the propagation indices so im not totally sure what im looking at half the time honestly.

i guess my question is — is there like a good way to know in advance when the bands are gonna be open or is it mostly just luck and checking the DX cluster constantly? i feel like im missing openings because i dont know when to even bother sitting down at the radio. been licensed about 18 months so still figuring all this out.

yeah the flux has been all over the place this cycle, we're getting some decent peaks but then it just falls off. honestly the best thing i ever did was start checking the A and K index along with the solar flux number — the flux tells you roughly how much ionization the sun is pumping out, but the A and K index tell you if geomagnetic conditions are calm or stirred up. you can have a high flux day and still get garbage propagation if the K index is up around 4 or 5 because of a coronal mass ejection or something hitting the magnetosphere.

for 17m and 20m from the midwest into europe you're generally looking at a window around your sunrise or a few hours after, and then again in the late afternoon. but yeah it varies a ton. i use the DX maps site and also just listen — if i hear anyone at all on 20m in the direction i want to work, the band is probably at least marginal. cluster helps but it doesnt tell you if conditions on YOUR path are good, just that somebody somewhere can hear somebody.

same boat as you, been licensed two years and propagation still kind of mystifies me lol. what helped me a lot was just leaving a websdr receiver open in like the UK or Germany while im doing other stuff. if i can hear signals there, i know the path is open even before i fire up my rig. its not a perfect system but it gave me a feel for when things are actually moving.

also the solar cycle 25 has been way more active than anyone predicted so theres that i guess, means more good days but also more sudden shutdowns when theres a big flare or whatever