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FT8 decoding seems worse than it used to be? or is it just me

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so ive been running FT8 on 20m pretty regularly for the last couple years and lately it feels like my decode count is down noticeably compared to say 18 months ago. same setup, IC-7300 into a dipole at about 30ft, WSJT-X 2.6.1, audio going through the USB cable. nothing changed on my end as far as i can tell.

im wondering if its band conditions obviously but i was also reading something about the overall noise floor on 20m getting worse as more people run higher power into it. not sure if thats a real thing or just forum noise (heh). decode count on a decent evening used to be like 40-50 stations in a single cycle and now im seeing more like 20-25 on the same band. granted the solar stuff has been weird this cycle.

anyone else noticing this or do i need to go back and check my setup more carefully. i did recently move my router closer to the shack which i know isnt ideal but i didnt think it would matter that much at HF

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the router thing might actually be your culprit, more than you think. wifi routers especially the newer dual band ones can throw out a pretty nasty noise floor even at HF. worth doing a quick test — kill the router completely and see if your decode count jumps back up. i did something similar when i added a NAS drive to my network and it wiped out like 15dB of dynamic range on 40m before i tracked it down.

also check your waterfall for any regular banding or striping patterns, that usually indicates switching supply interference. the 7300 is a good rig but it doesnt have the greatest front end when there's local noise competing. might be worth looking at a common mode choke on the USB cable too if you havent already, those can couple noise straight into the audio path and its not always obvious.

solar conditions havent been helping either but id rule out the local stuff first since thats actually fixable

yeah honestly same here, though im on a completely different setup so its probably not the same cause. been running JS8Call more than FT8 lately anyway partly because i like that you can actually have a conversation vs just exchanging signal reports and grid squares over and over. FT8 starts feeling like a video game after a while lol. but when i do fire up WSJT the decode numbers do feel a bit off compared to last year. could just be where we are in the solar cycle doing weird things to propagation patterns, 20m has been opening and closing at weird times lately

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