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40m dipole vs vertical — which actually works better for dx from a flat lot

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so ive been going back and forth on this for a few months now. i have a pretty flat suburban lot, maybe 60x120 feet, and right now im running a 40m dipole up about 30 feet in an inverted V configuration. it works ok but im never really sure if im leaving signal on the table compared to a vertical, especially for dx.

the thing is ive read all the stuff about verticals needing a good radial system to be worth anything, and my soil out here in the midwest is supposedly decent but not amazing. i laid down 16 radials when i put up a buddipole experiment a while back and it seemed alright but nothing blew me away. a buddy of mine (kd9 something, cant remember his suffix) swears by his trap vertical for 40 and 80 and says he works eu regularly with it but hes also got like 32 radials buried.

basically asking if anyone has actually done a real side by side comparison, like switching between the two antennas on the same band same conditions. not looking for antenna modeler output, ive seen the nec plots. just real world impressions from people who have actually tried both.

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ran basically this exact experiment a few years ago. had a 40m dipole at 35 feet and put up a DX Engineering radial plate with a hustler 4BTV after debating it forever. short answer is they both have their moments and its really angle of radiation that matters most.

for closer stuff, 500-1500 miles, the dipole at that height was consistently better, higher angle radiation works in its favor there. but when i was trying to work JA or anything eu on 40 at night the vertical had a clear edge most of the time. not dramatic, maybe an S unit or so, but real. the catch is i had 32 radials down and spent a weekend doing it right. without a solid radial field the vertical was noticeably worse and i woulda stuck with the dipole.

if youre only doing 16 radials id honestly add more before drawing conclusions. theres a reason everyone says radials radials radials, its not just people repeating stuff, it actually matters a lot for a ground mounted vertical.

honestly my take is just get the dipole higher if you can. like 30 feet on 40m is pretty low, thats not even a half wavelength up. if you could get it to 45 or 50 feet the low angle radiation improves quite a bit and you might be surprised. easier than dealing with radials too.

i went through this same thing and ended up just building a taller support instead of switching to a vertical. worked way better for me personally. ymmv obviously depending on what directions you care about.

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