so ive been on 20m and 17m a lot this past week and something just feels off. like i'll hear a really strong EU station around 1400 UTC and then 20 minutes later the whole band just goes dead. not even noise, just dead. checked the solar flux index this morning and it was sitting around 145 which honestly isnt bad at all, so i dont know what to make of it. K index was elevated a couple days ago, maybe that's still messing things up? i caught a brief opening to JA land yesterday afternoon on 15m which was kind of unexpected, worked a couple stations and then poof, gone. my question is really just whether propagation has been as unpredictable for everyone else or if theres something wrong with my setup that im not seeing. running a dipole at about 35 feet if that matters.

yeah the geomagnetic stuff a few days ago definitely stirred things up. i saw the Kp hit 4 or 5 at one point and that tends to mess with the higher latitude paths for a day or two even after it settles down. the JA opening you caught on 15m actually makes sense timing wise, around that part of the day the greyline does some interesting things depending on the season. honestly 145 SFI is pretty decent these days so the bands should be cooperating more than they are, i'd just keep an eye on the K index and give it another day or so. the solar cycle is ramping up but its not a smooth ride by any means.

im kind of new to all this but ive been obsessing over DXMaps and the cluster lately trying to understand propagation better and i noticed the same thing you described, spots would show a path open and then nothing. someone on another forum told me to look at the NOAA space weather page and the estimated Ap index not just the K index since it gives a slightly longer view. still trying to figure out what numbers actually mean good conditions vs bad ones though, its a lot to absorb haha