so ive been noticing over the past few weeks that 17 and 20 meters have been doing some really interesting things in the evenings. last tuesday i worked a JA station on 17m around 0100z with just 100 watts and a dipole which honestly shocked me because that path has been pretty dead for me for like two years. and then the next night i couldnt even hear europe on 20m at all. its been all over the place.

checked the solar flux index and its been hovering around 150-160 which i know is decent for this part of the cycle, but i dont really have a great feel for what numbers mean what in terms of actual band openings. like i know higher is better generally but is there some threshold where things really start to open up on the higher bands? been eyeing 10m and 12m but havent heard much up there yet. anyone been seeing good openings lately or know what to look for?

yeah propagation has definitely been picking up, we're getting closer to solar max and the numbers have been climbing pretty steadily this year. flux around 150-160 is solid, you start seeing reliable 10m openings to Europe and beyond when you get consistently above 150, sometimes even sporadic E mixes in and makes things really interesting in summer months.

the thing is the flux number alone doesnt tell the whole story -- you also want to keep an eye on the K-index and A-index. when those spike up after a CME or a geomagnetic storm it can completely kill bands that should theoretically be open based on flux alone. ive had days where flux was 180 and 10m was dead as a doornail because the K was up at 5 or 6. pskreporter and DXmaps are your friends for seeing what's actually propagating in real time rather than guessing from the indices. that JA contact on 17m with a dipole and 100w sounds about right for this time of year when the path cooperates, nice work.

10m has been cracking open here in the mornings a couple times this month, worked a PY station (Brazil) last week which was the first real 10m DX ive had in like three years so something is definitely happening. i got lucky and just happened to have the rig on while eating breakfast. honestly i just leave DX cluster notifications on my phone now so i dont miss the openings when they happen because they can come and go pretty fast especially on the high bands.