so ive been noticing 20m has been kind of all over the place the last couple weeks. some mornings i wake up and its completely dead, cant raise anybody, and then like an hour later europe is just pouring in like nothing. checked the solar flux and its been sitting around 140-150 which honestly should be decent enough right? had a solid opening to japan last tuesday around 0200 UTC which was unexpected, wasnt even trying for it just had the rig on while doing other stuff and suddenly JA stations everywhere.

curious if anyone else has been seeing the same thing or if theres something funky going on with my antenna setup. im running a dipole at about 30 feet so nothing fancy. the K index has been jumping around too which probably explains some of it but i feel like even on quiet days its been unpredictable. is this just normal solar cycle stuff or should i be looking at something else

yeah 20m has definitely been doing that lately. the solar flux numbers look decent on paper but the K index spiking is really what kills it - even a K of 3 or 4 can mess things up bad depending on what path you're trying to work. i usually keep an eye on the DXmaps site and the WWV propagation bulletins, gives you a better picture of whats actually happening in real time instead of just the flux number alone.

that JA opening you mentioned sounds about right for this time of year actually, the long path can do some weird things especially late night. honestly 30 feet for a dipole is on the low side for 20m but its not like its broken, just means youre probably putting more signal at higher angles than youd want for DX. if the band is open it'll still work, maybe just not as strong as youd like. keep chasing it, the cycle is definitely on the way up and it shows

same here, im fairly new to hf (got my general last spring) and ive been trying to figure out propagation and its honestly kind of overwhelming. like there's solar flux, A index, K index, geomagnetic stuff... i downloaded some app that shows all of it but i dont really know what numbers to look for to decide if a band is going to be good or not. been meaning to ask this exact question so glad you posted it