so ive been noticing 10m and 12m doing some interesting things over the past few weeks and im not sure if im reading too much into it or if we're actually starting to see some real solar cycle 25 action. had a few contacts into europe on 10m last tuesday around midday and i wasnt even really trying, just had the radio on while i was doing other stuff and the DX cluster started lighting up. checked the solar flux and it was sitting around 170 which isnt crazy high but definitely not bad.

thing is, the very next day conditions were garbage. like completely dead. same time of day, same antenna, nothing. i know propagation can be unpredictable but man the swings have been something else lately. anyone else seeing this or is it a regional thing? im in the midwest so my path to europe is probably different than you guys on the east coast. also been hearing some stuff about a geomagnetic disturbance messing things up around that time, maybe thats what killed it the second day.

either way im cautiously optimistic about where we're headed with the solar cycle. my old elmers always talked about how crazy 10m gets at solar max and i feel like im finally starting to see what they meant. curious what others are experiencing on the higher HF bands right now.

yeah 10m has definitely been showing signs of life, not just you. I logged a handful of JA stations last weekend almost completely by accident, was just tuning around and suddenly the band was wide open to the pacific. lasted maybe 90 minutes then gone. thats just how it goes at this part of the cycle though, the openings are real but they can be short and you have to be ready to jump on them when they happen.

the geomagnetic stuff really does hammer things. even a moderate Kp of like 4 or 5 can wipe out what should otherwise be a decent day on 10 and 12. i always check space weather dot com and the NOAA forecasts before i even bother setting up for a serious session on the high bands. the solar flux index is a good starting point but the Ap and Kp indices are what really tell me whether its worth trying for DX or if i should just hang around 40m and work locals.

your east/west path from the midwest is actually pretty solid for europe in my experience, especially around the grey line. if you havent tried getting on around sunrise or sunset you might be surprised what you can work even on mediocre flux days.

this is actually really helpful to read because im pretty new and i didnt even know you were supposed to check solar stuff before getting on the air. i just kind of tune around and hope for the best lol. what exactly is the solar flux number and where do you check it? i have a general ticket and been trying to get into HF but honestly half the time i have no idea why the bands sound empty.