so ive been noticing for the past couple weeks that 20m seems really inconsistent. some days i can work europe no problem in the afternoons, other days i cant even hear anything past maybe 1000 miles. checked the solar flux index a few times and it seems like its been bouncing around a lot, like anywhere from low 140s up to 170 or so. not sure if thats normal for this part of the cycle or what.

i'm running about 100w into a dipole up about 30 feet, nothing fancy. worked my first JA station last thursday which was exciting, then the very next day the band sounded completely dead by 2pm local time. buddy of mine said there was a geomagnetic storm or something? i dont really understand how all that ties together honestly. like i get the basic concept of the ionosphere bouncing signals but the details of what affects it day to day still kinda confuses me. anyone have a good way to track this stuff or know what the flux has to look like before 10m actually opens up

yeah propagation has been kinda all over the place, welcome to solar cycle 25 haha. the flux numbers you're seeing are actually pretty decent for DX, anything above 150 and 10m starts getting interesting especially if the K index stays low. that's really the key thing to watch alongside the flux — the K index tells you how disturbed the geomagnetic field is, and when it spikes up to 4 or 5 that's when everything goes to garbage even if the flux looks good. there was definitely a CME impact a week or so ago that messed things up for a couple days.

for tracking it i just keep a tab open on spaceweather.com and also DXmaps when im about to sit down for a session, DXmaps will actually show you real time spots so you can see if anyone's working across the pond before you even key up. your JA on 20m with a dipole at 30 feet is nothing to sneeze at btw, low dipoles work better than people think on 20 for some reason, something about the radiation angle

im kind of in the same boat as you honestly, been licensed about 8 months and the propagation thing is still pretty mysterious to me. i downloaded an app called HamSphere or maybe it was Ham Radio Propagation, i forget, and it gives you predictions but half the time the bands do the opposite of what it says lol. i think someone in my club mentioned that 17m has been more reliable than 20m lately for european contacts in the afternoons, might be worth trying if you havent already. my elmer keeps telling me to just get on and listen for 10 minutes before giving up on a band, which is actually pretty good advice i think